In 2024, several Southern Africa countries held elections. In both South Africa and Botswana, the political landscape shifted dramatically, as the African National Congress (ANC) and the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) saw their decades-long dominance come to an end. In Namibia, the South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO) also experienced a decline in popularity, retaining power with its smallest majority since independence in 1990, while in Mozambique, the contested election results that kept FRELIMO in power, led to widespread unrest across the country.
The election calendar for Southern Africa in 2025 is smaller, with only the Seychelles, Malawi and Tanzania holding elections. The first of these countries to hold elections will be Malawi, on 16 September. Despite gaining independence in 1966 Malawi, due to Hastings Banda’s almost three decades in power, has only had six presidents in its history. Interestingly, in 2025, half of those presidents will be competing as candidates to once again lead the country. The first is incumbent president Lazarus Chakwera, who is running as the Malawi Congress Party’s (MCP) candidate. Chakwera came to power in 2020 following the contested elections of 2019, when the Constitutional Court of Malawi annulled the results, upholding accusations that the elections had not been free and fair. Chakwera and the MCP formed the Tonse Alliance with nine other parties prior to the fresh elections, ultimately unseating incumbent president Peter Mutharika.
Peter Mutharika, who was initially declared president in 2019 before the court challenges took place, will again be running for president in 2025. Mutharika is the presidential candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The second former president to declare their candidacy in the 2025 elections is Joyce Banda, from the People’s Party (PP), a party she formed as a breakaway from the DPP. Other declared candidates include Dalitso Kabambe, the former governor of the Reserve Bank, representing the United Transformation Movement (UTM), which is the party of former vice president Saulos Chilima, and a founding partner of the Tonse Alliance. Current vice president Michael Usi has broken away from the UTM to form the Odya Zake Alibe Mlandu party, under which he is contesting the presidency. The United Democratic Front (UDF) has also nominated Atupele Muluzi, the former running mate of Peter Mutharika, as its presidential candidate.
Since the disputed 2019 elections, Malawi has taken steps to consolidate its democracy, and implemented reforms to prevent similar disputes in the future. Although the constitutional court found the 2019 elections to be neither free nor fair, it was encouraging for Malawi’s democracy that the courts served as the vehicle to resolve the dispute. While then-president Mutharika rejected the court ruling, and nationwide protests ensued, requiring judges to be escorted by armed security to the court, the dispute neither plunged Malawi into a sustained period of unrest nor undermined its democratic foundations. However, it remains to be seen if the challenges of 2019 significantly shook the population’s trust in Malawi’s democratic institutions, with voter turnout in the upcoming elections being a key indicator of any voter apathy that might exist.
There are further challenges facing Malawi in the 2025 elections. One of these challenges focuses on the perceived lack of credibility of the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC), which was at the centre of the 2019 court case. There are concerns from both opposition parties and civil society about the independence of the MEC and the apparent political affiliations of those in top leadership positions. Protests have been held, calling for the resignation of Judge Annabel Mtalimanja and Andrew Mpesi from the MEC, with protesters alleging that they received bribes from the MCP and that the electronic voting lacks transparency. In June, a protest against the MEC was disrupted, when men carrying machetes attacked and injured protesters, also damaging property. Those at the protest alleged that the police and security personnel watched as attacks on protesters took place. This incident drew criticism from foreign diplomats and calls from Human Rights Watch for a proper investigation.
One of these challenges focuses on the perceived lack of credibility of the MEC, which was at the centre of the 2019 court case. There are concerns from both opposition parties and civil society about the independence of the MEC and the apparent political affiliations of those in top leadership positions
Tweet
In addition, the DPP has accused the MCP of state-sponsored violence, intimidation and manipulation of the electoral processes, something the MCP and police have denied. Youth groups aligned with the MCP have been accused of being behind the violence experienced in the run up to the elections. Civil society organisations have called on the youth not to allow themselves to be used for political violence, but weak law enforcement and a lack of prosecutions of those involved in violence are noted as concerns to being able to bring an end to the violence. This violence points to heightened tensions in Malawi ahead of the elections, further raising fears that the election results may once again be disputed.
The DPP has accused the MCP of state-sponsored violence, intimidation and manipulation of the electoral processes, something the MCP and police have denied. Youth groups aligned with the MCP have been accused of being behind the violence experienced in the run up to the elections.
Tweet
From a regional perspective, both the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) are expected to deploy election observation missions. However, SADC may be faced with a challenge of not being able to deploy its election mission in the same manner as previous missions. In the past, SADC has been partial to deploying the Panel of Elders to monitor and resolve election disputes as part of its Mediation and Conflict Prevention and Preventative Diplomacy structure. However, in the case of Malawi, this may not be possible, as one of the members of the Panel, Joyce Banda, is running for president in Malawi. While SADC has other mechanisms at its disposal to monitor and observe elections, and it is not required to use the Panel in this manner, the case of Malawi has nonetheless presented SADC with a novel situation, what does it do when one of its appointed officials, in this case a member of the Panel of Elders, runs for office?
While Malawi is known for its relative political stability in Africa, the country nonetheless faces challenges due to a lack of job opportunities, poverty, and an economy in need of transformation, all whilst being exposed to the challenges of climate change. However, Malawi has shown in the past that its democracy and democratic institutions are robust and electoral challenges can be solved through court processes rather than unrest. This election presents an opportunity for Malawi to further entrench its commitment to democracy and remain a stable state in Southern Africa.
Katharine Bebington is a Researcher at ACCORD.
