Just like its forerunner, the Organisation of African Unity, which had to refashion and reposition itself after the Cold War, so too must the African Union adapt and respond to the rapidly emerging new global order.
Such systemic changes in the global order are not new. The last time such a transformation occurred was at the end of the Cold War, at the beginning of the 1990s. At that time, Africa, through the erstwhile Organisation of African Unity (OAU) and its then secretary-general, Salim Ahmed Salim, responded by convening a summit in July 1990 which adopted the historic “Declaration of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the Organisation of African Unity on the Political and Socio-Economic Situation in Africa and the Fundamental Changes Taking Place in the World.”
The deliberations at this summit were informed by a report prepared by Salim on “Fundamental changes taking place in the world and their implications for Africa: Proposals for an African response.”
For the OAU, in its declaration, the epochal changes of that time were characterised — among others — by a rapprochement between East and West as part of a move away from the Cold War; the socioeconomic and political transformation of Central and East Europe following the collapse of the USSR; the accelerating trend towards globalisation and establishing regional economic blocs like the European Union; and technological advances that would result in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
On the continent, the OAU viewed the independence of Namibia and the unbanning of the ANC in South Africa, both happening in 1990, as positive developments, signalling that the end of Africa’s decolonisation era was imminent.
Flowing from this analysis, the OAU concluded in its declaration that “these, we found, constitute major factors which should guide Africa’s collective thinking about the challenges and options before her in the 1990s and beyond in view of the real threat of marginalisation of our continent.”
Therefore, the OAU needed to respond by refashioning itself and repositioning its machinery and our continent to confront what was then the unknown world of the 1990s.
The fourth perspective should come from Africa’s voice about this multipolar world — what we see as a potential threat, the opportunities within our reach, and what we should do to end the 21st century on a high note.
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New world, new juncture
I am recalling this history because, once again, the AU is at a similar historical juncture. If it is to respond strategically, to prevail as an organisation and lead our continent and its people in this new era, it will need to emulate Salim, especially the foresight and innovation he deployed to take the OAU to a higher level, coupled with his boldness and the courage he mastered to win over and mobilise his member states behind his vision.
The starting point should be to achieve conceptual and ideological clarity as Africans at a collective level in how we characterise the emerging global order. What do we see out there? Certainly not the rapprochement of the opening years of the 1990s, but rather conflict and an unmasked hostility among the big powers.
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine War is one reminder of some of the contradictions the end of the USSR did not resolve. The optimism of the 1990s about regional economic blocs has since faded away and the excitement about globalisation has been replaced by disenchantment with today’s world affairs.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution is here, but so is the decoupling and fragmentation that is caused by superpower rivalry over, for example, who should lead and control the chip technology. If anything, the monopolies that the West used to possess for centuries are no longer tenable.
Breakthroughs achieved by China’s Huawei are just one example on the technology front. The same is happening in the financial sector: de-dollarisation and the increasing preference for the use of multiple currencies in international trade. In a word, the West’s monopolies that Africa’s eminent political economist, Samir Amin, wrote about back in the 1980s seem to be under threat due to the push and competing advances in the Global South.
There is no consensus on how we all view the emerging global system. Let me single out four perspectives for now.
The first sees this multipolar era in a positive way, as an opportunity to strengthen the world’s multilateral dispensation. UN secretary general António Guterres echoed this view in his address to the General Assembly, in September 2023: “For much of the Cold War, international relations were largely seen through the prism of two superpowers. Then came a short period of unipolarity. Now we are rapidly moving towards a multipolar world. This is, in many ways, positive. It brings new opportunities for justice and balance in international relations.”
The UN is already emulating what Salim did in 1990. This year in September it will convene a “Summit of the Future” whose intended outcome will be an ambitious, action-oriented “Pact for the Future” to tackle core global challenges through a reformed and revitalised multilateralism.
The second perspective is a bit different. It looks back to the unipolar, post-Cold War period in nostalgic terms, as the golden age of a “rules-based” order. A rising China and a resurgent Russia are perceived as a threat.
To proponents of this view, the emerging multipolar world is a step into an era of uncertainty, full of dystopic possibilities. World War 3 is imminent, we are told. Everywhere, countries are arming themselves, citizens are advised to prepare for war.
The “EU should prepare for war by end of the decade, German Defence Minister warns”, read a Euronews headline. “Is war coming to the Korean peninsula?”, asked Russia Today. “Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump Wednesday delivered a chilling message at a 2024 campaign rally in Iowa, cautioning that World War 3 is imminent, with the possibility of global destruction”, Livemint reported. Time magazine headlined an explainer article, “Why So Many Politicians Are Talking About World War III”.
The optimism of the 1990s about regional economic blocs has since faded away and the excitement about globalisation has been replaced by disenchantment with today’s world affairs.
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Multipolar system
The adherents of a third perspective, primarily Russia and China, have enthusiastically embraced the multipolar system as a necessity for existential reasons, while dismissing the nostalgia for a “rules-based” past.
In addition, they have taken measures to disentangle themselves completely from the West to achieve full sovereignty in all domains. Russia believes that the “collective West” wants to inflict a “strategic defeat” on her and dismember the country.
China is also talking in similar existential terms, believing that it is being “contained” by the West through different means, including sanctions imposed on its technology sector. Both countries vehemently dispute the narrative that they are a “peer competitor”, a “threat” or an “enemy”.
The fourth perspective should come from Africa’s voice about this multipolar world — what we see as a potential threat, the opportunities within our reach, and what we should do to end the 21st century on a high note.
What would Salim do? we should ask ourselves. Here we may find the answer by paying heed to what he said in October 1999 in his address titled “The Challenge to Africa of the New Millennium: The Perspective of the OAU”.
“As we prepare to enter the new century, and given the challenges and prospects that are concomitant with the drastically changed international situation, the imperative need for our continent to reposition itself is self-evident. Such a repositioning, a priori, requires that we organise ourselves in such a way that we are able to confront the challenges, overcome the obstacles, and make full use of the opportunities that lie ahead in the globalising world.”
I cannot agree more!
Prof Eddy Maloka is the CEO of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), an organ of the African Union responsible for promoting good governance on our continent. A more comprehensive version of this article was first published in the Daily Maverick on 29 January 2024.
