Conflict & Resilience Monitor – 17 November 2023

The war between Ukraine and Russia, return to power of the Taliban, recurrence in conflicts, in for example, Ethiopia and Sudan, rise in violent extremism, and more recently the escalating violence between Israel and Palestine, as well as the distrust in our political systems and security institutions, is sending us back to the drawing board for creating sustainable peace. There have been many workshops, seminars, papers and policy briefs aspiring to rethink peace and security. Most recently the United Nations (UN) ushered in a New Agenda for Peace and the African Union (AU) sought to reset preventative diplomacy and mediation at its 14th High Level Retreat on the Promotion of Peace, Security and Stability in Egypt in October 2023.

The relationship between the United Nations (UN) and the African Union (AU) has been evolving in the context of the changing global order as well as the growth in the agency of the African Union and other African institutions over the last twenty years.

Climate-related extreme weather events and conflict are making their mark globally, co-occurring and reinforcing each other in a vicious circle, complicating efforts to build and sustain peace. In Southern Africa, Mozambique is a prime example of how the adverse effects of climate change interact with conflict, fragility and displacement in multifaceted ways, eroding social capital and social cohesion and even making conflict dynamics more pronounced and intractable. As the impacts of climate change become clearer, the consequences for peace and security have become a key concern for policymakers and practitioners. The adverse impacts of climate variability, extremes and environmental degradation exacerbate the causes and effects of conflict and undermine efforts to build and sustain peace. While these dynamics are highly context-specific, they tend to emerge in fragile and conflict-affected settings (FCASs) where communities struggle to sustain resilient food, land, and water systems (FLWSs). Livelihood challenges and rising food, fertiliser, and input prices are further compounded by climate change and unsustainable resource use, poor governance, and weak social cohesion.

COP28 will be hosted in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from 30 November – 12 December 2023, making it the second successive year that the COP will be held in a member of the UNFCCC’s Arab Group of oil-rich nations. It will be the first time that a CEO, in this instance the CEO of the national oil company, ADNOC, will lead the negotiations as COP President.