Issue No: 6/2022

Conflict & Resilience Monitor – 28 July 2022

The Conflict and Resilience Monitor offers monthly blog-size commentary and analysis on the latest conflict-related trends in Africa.

In this month’s Conflict and Resilience Monitor, we offer analyses on some of the most topical issues facing the continent this month. 

We begin with a piece from Asha Ali, Anne Funnemark and Elisabeth Rosvold, who are from NUPI on how Violent conflict exacerbates Ethiopia’s vulnerability to climate change based on existing research related to climate change, peace and security. The research highlights the impact of climate change on livelihoods and migration in the context of a violent conflict. Staying in East Africa, Halima Ahmed describes the electoral atmosphere ahead of Kenya’s 2022 General Elections in her piece on How the nomination of the iron lady has altered Kenya’s 2022 General Elections. In particular, she discusses the inclusion of Martha Karua as the running mate of Raila Odinga – Kenya’s first presidential female running mate.

Our third piece focusses on, Diplomatic tensions between the DRC and Rwanda: A Call for Mediation. Dr Anslem Adunimay explains the background to the renewed conflict involving the M23 armed group and calls for a broad based regional approach which involves the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR).

Finally, we turn our focus to Southern Africa where Katharine Bebington discusses the role of SADC in Eswatini: lessons from Lesotho. In this piece, she outlines the possible opportunities and challenges around the regional economic community’s intervention in the Kingdom’s ongoing conflict. 

Chief Editor: Conflict & Resilience Monitor​
Managing Editor: Conflict & Resilience Monitor​
Assistant Editor: Conflict & Resilience Monitor
Photo: Kate Holt/IRIN
Photo: Kate Holt/IRIN

Violent conflict exacerbates Ethiopia’s vulnerability to climate change

  • Asha Ali
  • Anne Funnemark
  • Elisabeth Rosvold

Amid the worst drought in over 40 years, Ethiopia’s high exposure to climate change and its devastating impacts is growing increasingly evident by the day. While exact estimates are uncertain, it is predicted that the temperature will increase by between 0.5∞C and 2∞C by 2050 and rainfall is expected to become more erratic as the rainy and dry season become increasingly unpredictable. 

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Photo: Tom Zed
Photo: Tom Zed

How the nomination of the ‘Iron Lady’ has influenced Kenya’s 2022 general elections

  • Halima Ahmed

Kenya will hold its 5th general elections on 9 August 2022. Voters elect the President, Members of the National Assembly and Senate, County Governors and Members of the 47 County Assemblies. For the first time in Kenyan history, a woman was proposed as a Presidential running mate.

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Photo: Paul Kagame/Flickr
Photo: Paul Kagame/Flickr
Cross-border / Inter-State tensions

Diplomatic Tensions Between the DRC and Rwanda

  • Anslem Adunimay

The diplomatic tensions between the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda once again increase the risk of conflict in eastern-DRC. These tensions are also an indication that previous agreements between the DRC and Rwanda still suffer from lack of implementation.

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Photo: GCIS
Photo: GCIS
Peace and Security

The role of SADC in Eswatini: Lessons from Lesotho

  • Katharine Bebington

It has been over a year since protests erupted in the Kingdom of Eswatini.  The unrest was sparked by the death of a university student while in police custody, with many young people airing their grievances about the conduct of the police in the Kingdom.  The emphasis of these protests then grew to include a number of different issues facing Eswatini, least of all grievances around issues of governance and the lack of democracy in the Kingdom.

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