Issue No: 10/2025

Conflict & Resilience Monitor – 29 Oct 2025

The Conflict and Resilience Monitor offers monthly blog-size commentary and analysis on the latest conflict-related trends in Africa.

Photo Credit: user36718402

This October we begin the edition with an article from Cedric de Coning about the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in peace building.  While AI is already playing a role in conflict settings and it undoubtedly can assist in synthesising large chunks of information and data, the impartiality of AI tools should not be taken for granted.  AI is not free of the biases of the people who created it, nor those that exist in the data that it has been trained on. While AI has a role to play it cannot replace the importance of human involvement in peace making processes.

This is followed by an article from Abraham Ename Minko who writes about the impact that climate change has had on the conflict in northern Nigeria.  Climate change is recognised as a threat multiplier, and as environmental conditions have changed around the Lake Chad Basin, so clashes between farmers and pastoralist herders have increased, to the point where these conflicts claim more lives than violent extremism in the area.  Climate change, the lack of economic opportunities and the weak presence of the state has also provided fertile ground for recruitment by Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province.

Boikanyo Nkwatle has written the next article on pre-electoral coalitions in South Africa after the recent launch of United for Change (UFC).  UFC, an alliance between Build One South Africa (BOSA), the GOOD Party and Rise Mzansi, is the latest attempt at forming an alliance in South Africa ahead of the local government elections in 2026.  In the past, these alliances have not been successful, but the large number of political parties in the country and opinion polls suggesting a public appetite for such alliances, could result in such alliances becoming more viable options in the future.

Finally, Katharine Bebington writes about three elections that have taken place in Africa this October.  Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire and Tanzania have all gone to the polls this month, but each of their elections have been marred by issues of intimidation of opposition figures, accusations of human rights abuses and, in the case of Cameroon and Cote d’Ivoire, the extension of term limits.  These elections offer an opportunity to take stock of the strength of democracy and democratic principles in these states and Africa as a whole.

Chief Editor: Conflict & Resilience Monitor​
Managing Editor: Conflict & Resilience Monitor
Assistant Editor: Conflict & Resilience Monitor​
Photo Credit: AFPC
Peace and Security

Is There a Place for AI in Peace and Conflict Resolution?

  • Cedric de Coning

Artificial Intelligence (AI) can influence the speed, scale and complexity of decision-making in peace and conflict settings. AI and other forms of computational support is already being used in war to support threat detection, target identification and to manage autonomous weapon systems such as drones. Less is known about the potential and risks of using AI in peacemaking, peacekeeping and conflict resolution. 

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Photo Credit: Amina Idriss M.
Environment

Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier: Environmental Stress and Violent Conflict in Northern Nigeria

  • Abraham Ename Minko

Climate change is increasingly recognised as a threat multiplier in fragile contexts, amplifying pre-existing tensions and exacerbating risks of violent conflict. In Africa, where millions depend on climate-sensitive livelihoods, environmental stress converges with weak governance, poverty, and insecurity to create highly volatile conditions. Nowhere is this dynamic more visible than in northern Nigeria, where desertification, erratic rainfall, and the shrinking of Lake Chad have profoundly altered the socio-economic landscape. 

 



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Photo Credit: The Democratic Alliance and GaoPhala

Pre-Electoral Alliances in South Africa: Lessons from the Past, Implications for the Future

  • Boikanyo Nkwatle

South African opposition political parties have long experimented with pre-electoral alliances, many of which have ended unsuccessfully. Against this backdrop, United for Change (UFC), launched by Build One South Africa (BOSA), the GOOD Party and Rise Mzansi in October 2025, represents a fresh attempt to break the cycle. While this alliance aims to contest the 2026 local government elections under a single banner, promising ethical leadership, better services, and a reset of political norms; if South Africa’s political history teaches us anything, it is that pre-electoral alliances, no matter how well-intentioned, rarely succeed in delivering a political alternative. Most of the previous electoral alliances perished in their infancy stages, from the ill-fated Democratic Alliance (DA)-Agang SA experiment, to the short-lived partnership between Patricia de Lille and the DA, to the ultimately stillborn Multi-Party Charter for South Africa.



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Photo Credit: EyeEm
Elections

Africa’s October Elections

  • Katharine Bebington

This October, elections were held in Central, East and West Africa, with Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire and Tanzania all going to the polls.  Elections held to high standards often serve as a mechanism to further entrench democratic principles in society, producing a leader who represents the will of the people and also ensuring a smooth transition of power.  Elections are also expected to take place in an environment that allows for free political activity, where citizens have the right to challenge those in power peacefully and within the confines of the law, and where the process is free from any form of intimidation. Unfortunately, elections are not always held to the same standards.  Instead, elections can serve as a tool to further entrench those in power; providing a veil of legitimacy and a supposed public mandate.

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