The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) has recently warned that in a best case scenario Africa may face as many as 300,000 COVID-19 related deaths in 2020. At the same time, with lockdowns and restrictions being extended in many African countries, people are posing questions (and sometimes demanding answers from authorities) as to when, and at what stage, should these restrictions be lifted or at least relaxed.
The policy dilemma for Africa
The current COVID-19 pandemic poses two closely interlinked challenges which are the demands for urgent action needed to contain the outbreak, and requirements needed for long-term strategic investment directed towards social and economic recovery. However, these challenges present themselves as policy dilemmas in which policy makers are presented with a variety of unsatisfactory choices. Focusing on prevention implies containment measures including social distancing, lockdowns, travel bans and state of emergencies that will lead to a loss of livelihoods and economic growth. In the same vein, (re-)deploying security forces to enforce the containment measures, social security for the poor, and economic stimulus would demand large public expenditure at a time when revenue collection is almost impossible. The alternative is equally bleak, where less assertive measures may result in a potential large-scale public health emergency that will also have major socio-political, fiscal, security and economic implications.
C19ConflictMonitor: It is science, not politics, that should guide our response to the pandemic.
Tweet
Pragmatic containments strategy
The fight against containing COVID-19 is located mainly at the family and community levels. As a result, responses need to be flexible, dynamic and pragmatic. The localization of response mechanisms encourages collaborative efforts and the use of local expertise, which ensures greater accountability to communities and may enhance the credibility of containment measures.
The immediate response to a pandemic is aimed at saving lives. Urgent measures of containment should focus on the local prevention of transmission, which will reduce infection and death rates, reduce levels of illness and the need for hospitalization, while at the same time helping to maintain social stability and mitigating the adverse effects of the pandemic on the livelihoods of the poor.
In such life and death situations the response by authorities cannot be delayed, even if it detracts the attention of leadership, and utilizes resources that otherwise would have been spent on long term strategic projects.
Families are its first victims; but lockdowns and travel bans may also cause serious harm to national economies. The economic impact of the COVID-19 containment measures can cause significant losses, which will negatively affect economic growth and may even lead to a depression. The pandemic can thus have a disastrous effect on the livelihood of families and communities, as well as the formal economy.
The economic impact may also place a strain on the states’ future capacity for delivery. All the advances made towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals could be undone. This is especially true of the health sector which, failing continuous investments (which requires a resilient economy), may be irreparably damaged. During states of emergency and societal lockdowns, law enforcement agencies and security force resources will also be overstretched, while treasuries will lack replenishment in the absence of normal revenue generation.
Strategic partners
Strategic partners including the UN, EU, the US and China might consider helping Africa in three specific ways. First, since testing and related specialized equipment is a challenge for African countries, partners could donate or help procure such equipment, for instance by supporting the African Union’s Partnership to Accelerate COVID-19 Testing (PACT). Secondly, they could provide finance to resuscitate, repurpose, and improve the operation of existing African mechanisms, such as national safety nets, early warning systems and microfinance. And lastly, strategic partners need to work with the AU, its Regional Economic Communities and member states to help with the economic recovery once the present crisis has passed.
Leadership
The present situation throws a spotlight on the quality of leadership and governance. Already, as a consequence of the pandemic several elections have been deferred. With the economy at a standstill there will be greater demands for improved public service delivery. As we have seen during previous pandemics and crises, the legitimacy of governments, leaders, and the state will be tested, while predatory politics could emerge. Incumbent office-bearers may use the pandemic as a pretext to extend their term of office, while others may use it to exploit public fears and discredit political opponents.
Strategic actions
Short-term responses necessary to save lives may disrupt and undermine longer-term strategic plans aimed at building resilient economies and institutional capabilities. The first line of strategic capability is to predict the number of infections using scientific modelling. The second refers to prevention by carrying out early interventions by applying African CDC and WHO guidelines. The third is the ability to adapt to new local, national and global realities during and after the pandemic. These strategic interventions require the same or similar efforts and resources as those diverted to fight COVID-19.
Mobilizing a whole of society
Africa lacks the technology and artificial intelligence to effectively trace the spread of COVID-19. However, it has good community and social networks that could easily be mobilized to help track infection rates, especially in remote and difficult to reach areas.
Governments need to take a whole-of-society approach in which state and non-state actors, particularly religious leaders, traditional elders, tribal chiefs and the youth, together with the Private Sector, are all involved in efforts to deal with COVID-19.
To quote economist Paul Romer, a crisis is a terrible thing to waste. The pandemic offers an opportunity for political leadership to be exercised with determination. Epidemiological, not ideological solutions, are the key to success. It is science, not politics, that should guide our response to the pandemic.
Dr. Mehari Taddele Maru is currently a part-time professor at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy. He is a graduate of Harvard and Oxford universities and have held fellowships in prestigious academic programmes at various think-tanks and institutions of higher learning. He served as Lead Migration Expert, chief strategist and legislative drafter for IGAD and Programme Head and Legal Expert at African Union Commission. He tweets at @DrMehari.