Conflict & Resilience Monitor – 1 September 2023

The global order is rapidly changing. UN and African-led peace operations must adapt to both new geo-political realities as well as new threats and challenges. A major new UN policy document suggests what its member states need to do to prevent conflict and sustain peace during this period of uncertainty, and some of the recommendations calls for support to African peace operations.

Eager to escape perceived western domination, several countries – mostly in the global south – are looking to join the Brics bloc. The five-country bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) is also looking to grow its global partnerships. What began in 2001 as an acronym for four of the fastest growing states, BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), is projected to account for 45% of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms by 2030. It has evolved into a political formation as well.

The emergence of ‘putschist-populist’ politics in West Africa is threatening the hard-won democratic progress over the past decades. The 26 July coup in Niger, which was the sixth in three years is a classic case in point. The coup truncated the first civilian-to-civilian transition in 2021 since Niger’s independence in 1960 and hurt the country’s image as the most reliable Western ally in combatting terrorism in the Sahel. Regionally, the coup did not only dent the reputation of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), but it also accentuated the failures of ECOWAS in adopting a more robust preventive approach to coups d’états. It is therefore not surprising that ECOWAS has taken a harder stance on Niger’s new military regime than it has on previous coups in Guinea, Mali, and Burkina Faso to demonstrate that “it cannot only bark but can bite”.

Amid the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement between the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), renewed strife simmers in the country’s second most populous region – Amhara. The situation on the ground remained tense following the GoE’s announcement to disband regional Special Forces. The government maintains that change is essential for national unity, however, this plan has faced opposition from Fano, non-state militia with no formal command structure, taking part in a week of violent protests across the region in April 2023.

The 26 July coup in Niger is not an isolated event. Rather, it represents the recent resurgence of military coups that have plagued Africa, especially West Africa and Sudan. Since 2020, Africa has recorded seven successful coups and three unsuccessful coups. Some of these coups have occurred within the same country notably, Mali and Burkina Faso. These coup-affected countries have also experienced military rule for a third of their post-colonial independence. The resurgence of military coups is rooted in a combination of triggers, proximate and structural factors that require examination.