Savings clubs and other such community self-help arrangements can help people to cope better with the negative side-effects of the lockdown policies that governments introduced to prevent the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19. In countries such as Zimbabwe, without an effective social protection system for the poor and disadvantaged, savings clubs have often provided a buffer against the vagaries of broader economic and social challenges in local communities. Typically, ordinary people in Zimbabwe are faced with hunger and poverty due to a complex combination of macroeconomic instability, climate shocks and policy missteps. COVID-19, lockdown policies and social distancing regulations have added to the burden faced by ordinary people and have produced negative consequences on both formal and informal economic activities. The unemployment rate is estimated at 90%.
The impact of COVID-19 has become far-reaching and multidimensional in nature. It ranges from social, cultural, physical, economic to political dimensions. While many countries are working hard to ensure that the impact is minimised, new challenges are emerging. It is clear that the pressure of the pandemic has exacerbated a mounting economic crisis.
COVID-19 has had a significant impact on border communities in the Chipinge district in south-east Zimbabwe, which shares borders with Mozambique and South Africa. The borders are the lifeline of the Chipinge communities, and the efforts of the three governments to regulate the movement of people from either side of the borders, to prevent the spread of COVID-19, have negatively affected the economic and social interactions of the border communities. One unfortunate side-effect is that these measures have increased the space for illicit trade and organised crime along the borders as people try to earn a living and interact, in spite of the COVID-19 restrictions.
The dawn of 2020 heralded an auspicious beginning for four defining initiatives with particular significance for Africa: the historic agreement establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA); the African Union (AU) theme on Silencing the Guns 2020: Creating conducive conditions for Africa’s development; and two notable anniversaries related to women, peace and security (WPS). These were the 25th anniversary of the adoption of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action, and the 20th anniversary of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1325 (2000). It is worth recalling that the WPS agenda was established by UNSC Resolution 1325 and seeks to empower women in efforts aimed at preventing and ending conflict, and building and sustaining peace. Unfolding against this backdrop was one of the greatest threats to global health.
A few months ago, I warned the United Nations Security Council that the world stood on the brink of a hunger pandemic. A toxic combination of conflict, climate change and COVID-19 had threatened to push 270 million people to the brink of starvation. Famine was real. It was a terrifying possibility in up to three dozen countries if we did not continue to act like we had been acting. Fortunately, since then, the world really listened. Donors and leaders all over the world responded; they acted. Countries large and small took extraordinary measures to save the lives of their citizens and support their economies, spending US$17 trillion on fiscal stimulus and central bank support. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the G20 nations threw a lifeline to the poorest nations by suspending debt repayments. That made a huge impact. With our donors’ help, the global humanitarian community launched a huge and unprecedented global fightback against the coronavirus.
Since the negotiations for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) were launched in Johannesburg in 2015, remarkable progress has been achieved – largely because of the political will and commitment of the Assembly of Heads of States and Government of the African Union (AU) to ensure that Africa takes concrete steps towards the creation of an integrated market.
The contributions at the 14th Extra-Ordinary Summit on Silencing the Guns served to reaffirm the commitment of the current leadership of the continent to the moral and political duty given to us by our forebears to achieve an Africa free of conflict. The summit was able to answer some critical questions on the actions we must now take to advance this responsibility, including in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.
There is no getting around it: the COVID-19 crisis will hit Africa’s people particularly hard. Even if the infection rate remains low, the socio-economic devastation is already being felt. Access to clean water supplies and basic health services remain a challenge throughout the continent, making the containment measures taken by most countries all the more challenging. Beyond the immediate health concerns, the pandemic is triggering a global economic slowdown, which will severely hamper Africa’s development ambitions and curtail a successful two decades of macro-economic improvements and social gains.
Twenty-five elections were scheduled for 2020 in Africa. While some states chose to postpone their elections, citing COVID-19, others opted to continue. Holding elections during a pandemic has resulted in a number of new challenges. Some states have exhibited resilience by managing to conduct well-run elections, despite COVID-19. However, in other cases, attempts to conduct elections during the COVID-19 pandemic have increased tensions, undermined trust in democracy and contributed to election-related violence.
In the first week of December 2020, two key meetings were held that will impact significantly on the coming year’s peace and security agenda in Africa. The first was the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) High-Level Debate on the cooperation between the UN and regional and sub-regional organisations. The second noteworthy meeting was the African Union’s (AU) 14th Extraordinary Session on Silencing the Guns in Africa. While held separately, both meetings have informed and will direct the priorities and activities of peace actors across the African continent. The departure point dictating the synergies between the two meetings is how to leverage the partnerships among the UN, AU and regional and sub-regional organisations to silence the guns in Africa. This multi-stakeholder approach offered through institutional cooperation to silence the guns is increasingly important in a context where COVID-19 has acted as a force multiplier in several existing conflicts on the continent.
The African Union Heads of State and Government had marked the year 2020 with the theme “Silencing the Guns: Creating Conducive Conditions for Africa’s Development”. As a flagship project of Agenda 2063, Silencing the Guns by 2020 was adopted in 2013 during the Organisation of African Unity/African Union 50th Commemorative Anniversary Summit of African Heads of State. The vision of the 2013 Solemn Declaration was to achieve the goal of a conflict-free Africa, to make peace a reality for all our people and to rid the continent of wars and civil conflicts.
The human toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has been more limited in Africa than elsewhere. At the same time, the pandemic has exacerbated existing threats, fragilities and vulnerabilities – including in North Africa, the second-worst affected region of the continent – hindering international efforts to sustain peace, especially in conflict-affected settings such as Libya. The socio-economic impact of COVID-19 has also been significant, leading countries in the region to adopt a range of response measures with a view towards strengthening the resilience of societies and economies in the face of the pandemic.
Tensions between the Ethiopian government and regional government of Tigray came to a head on 3–4 November, after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) attacked a federal government position in Mekelle, Tigray’s capital. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed responded immediately with air strikes and ground attacks. While the underlying causes of the conflict relate to competing visions over the nature of the Ethiopian state, the immediate cause of the fighting was the National Election Board of Ethiopia’s (NEBE) decision in March to indefinitely postpone the elections that were scheduled for August 2020, due to COVID-19.
COVID-19 has significantly impacted peace processes in Africa, but it has also offered opportunities, however small, for peace. On 23 March 2020, United Nations Secretary-General (UNSG) António Guterres made an appeal, echoed by African Union (AU) Chairperson Cyril Ramaphosa, for a global ceasefire in an effort to redirect attention and resources to fighting COVID-19. In the context of the AU’s campaign to “Silence the Guns”, the UNSG explained that ceasefires would create more space for humanitarian services and diplomatic intervention in conflict areas. While experiences of conflict on the African continent may have presented conditions that are highly unlikely to result in any immediate ceasefires, some African cases have presented significant and interesting responses to the UNSG’s call. This piece briefly examines the trajectory of the seven African cases of ceasefires in relation to COVID-19, and looks at the implications for silencing of the guns.
Climate change is contributing to shaping the security and development context around the Lake Chad Basin. The governance deficits, underdevelopment and socio-economic plight of communities living in the Lake Chad Basin have been further exacerbated by environmental stresses and, most recently, also by the COVID-19 pandemic. Climate-related droughts exacerbate water shortages and related stresses, aggravate existing social vulnerabilities and impair the abilities of communities to adapt to changes in their social-ecological systems.
A blended approach to stabilisation is emerging in Africa. It is characterised by a response to crisis-affected settings, which combines the predominance and sometimes necessary means of hard-security interventions and soft-security measures associated with political and development responses. The Lake Chad Basin experience represents a model that could create prospects for enduring stability in the region. It could also resonate in other parts of Africa, especially in the Horn, where there is a growing policy debate by the African Union (AU) and partners for reimagining regional and international support to the security environment in Somalia and the region.
The end of the second decade of the 21st century has been characterised by an increase in the decades-long disruption in the Lake Chad Basin. A trifecta of climate change, conflict and, recently, the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated a humanitarian crisis, whose foundation is embedded in decades of deep neglect, a lack of governance, a proliferation in ungoverned spaces, and the increased boldness and resilience of terrorists groups, including Boko Haram, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and elements of Al-Qaeda. A military campaign, led by a multitude of national, regional and international partners, as well as a growing civilian effort, coordinated by the Lake Chad Basin Commission, the African Union (AU), affected governments and international support, has perhaps been beset by a crisis of imagination. While the terrorists, though currently diminished, have been able to adapt and innovate, the state response is still hesitant and slow.
The Lake Chad Basin is faced with a multidimensional crisis, largely as a result of a complex combination of factors that include terrorist activities, extreme poverty and a changing climate. The combination of these factors has triggered significant insecurity and the displacement of populations. The area has grown into one of the most complicated humanitarian emergencies in the world, with threats to the livelihoods of over 45 million inhabitants. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in the region has therefore exacerbated existing challenges, making an already dire situation worse. The pandemic has significantly heightened the economic needs in the region and has presented serious challenges to the livelihoods of people in this region. These factors feed into conflict triggers, which contribute to further instability in the Lake Chad Basin.