Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine about a ceasefire are ongoing, with no agreement in sight yet. However, an exchange of prisoners on 25 May, following the first direct talks in Istanbul on 16 May is a positive confidence building measure. One aspect that has not received a lot of attention yet is how such a ceasefire will be monitored, and who will do the monitoring?
A number of African countries have ceasefire monitoring experience from African and United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations, and some African officers also have language competencies that may be helpful in Russia and Ukraine. Many African countries, including those that have been part of the African peace initiative, may be acceptable to both parties, making it likely that they could contribute ceasefire observers to such a monitoring mission.
The technical elements that those involved in the ceasefire negotiations would need to decide on include the delineation of a line of separation, the establishment of a buffer zone and an exclusion zone, and the design of a ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism.
A ceasefire typically relies on the establishment of a line of separation, or ceasefire line. Any crossing of this line by land, sea or air would imply a breach, signalling a return to war. The ceasefire line is usually determined by the military position of both sides at the time of the agreement. It is agreed solely for the purposes of the ceasefire, and it is not intended to prejudice the terms of any future peace agreement.
Typically a buffer zone of several kilometres extends from the line of separation, into which neither side may enter by land, sea or air. This agreed distance of demilitarised no-man’s land serves as a protective barrier between the two armies to avoid accidental fire or other incidents that can spark confrontations and reignite the war.
From the line of separation there is also typically an exclusion or limitation zone with provisions that prohibit different types of heavy weaponry, ships, aircraft or drones from being deployed or operated within a certain distance from the line of separation.
Ceasefires are entered into by countries or parties at war with each other. They do not trust each other and thus need a means to independently verify that the other side is complying with the agreement. For these reasons a ceasefire agreement usually includes a monitoring mechanism that consist of a body that oversees the ceasefire, and of a means to monitor compliance, as well as to investigate breaches of the agreement. Many ceasefire agreements over the last 80 years have been monitored by the UN. In Africa the African Union (AU) is currently monitoring the ceasefire agreement in Tigray and there have been several other ceasefire observation missions, including in the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan.
An important question that has not received a lot of attention to date is who will be responsible for monitoring a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine? Is it likely that African countries will be part of such a peacekeeping mission?
So far, the Ukrainian and European peace proposal suggests that the ceasefire will be monitored by Russia, Ukraine and third-party countries. Earlier, President Zelensky suggested that United States (US) satellites and drones could be used to monitor the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
There are technical limitations to satellites and drones such as bad weather and cloud cover. Remote monitoring can play an important role in ceasefire observation, but any monitoring mechanism will need to be able to investigate alleged breaches and to manage incidents in the field.
The UN is the international organisation with the most experience in deploying and managing ceasefire observer missions. It also has access to a global pool of troop-contributing countries, including African countries, from which observers that are acceptable to both sides, could be drawn. Most importantly, UN missions are deployed and overseen by the UN Security Council where Russia, the US, China, France and the United Kingdom are permanent members with veto powers. Although Ukraine is not a member, the presence of key allies like France and the United Kingdom and the role of the US as mediator and guarantor, will probably give them sufficient confidence that their interests will be protected in the UN Security Council.
The UN is the international organisation with the most experience in deploying and managing ceasefire observer missions. It also has access to a global pool of troop-contributing countries, including African countries, from which observers that are acceptable to both sides, could be drawn
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Monitoring a line of separation, as well as buffer and exclusion zones, 24/7 over approximately 2000 kilometres will be a significant challenge. This will require the use of technology such as satellites and drones, but it will also require boots on the ground to deal with incidents, manage exceptions like allowing civilians to access the buffer zone for specific purposes, and to investigate alleged violations. This can be managed by a joint mechanism, typically a joint monitoring and verification mechanism made up by both sides.
Past experience with such joint mechanisms show, however, that without neutral third-party oversight, the parties to the conflict often treat these joint mechanisms as arenas for micro-battles, withholding or manipulating information and continually sparring over every issue. Ceasefire monitors, deployed by a neutral third-party like the UN could help to overcome these trust issues and facilitate the working of such a joint mechanism.
Ceasefire monitors, deployed by a neutral third-party like the UN could help to overcome these trust issues and facilitate the working of such a joint mechanism
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Regardless of what kind of mechanism is agreed upon to oversee a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, it will be a momentous task. It will require both sides to develop a shared understanding of the critical elements that need to be in place to ensure success, as well as a degree of pragmatism and flexibility to resolve problems as they arise. The most important ingredient will be sustaining the political will to make it work. It is not unlikely that several African countries will be asked to contribute ceasefire monitors to such an observation mission.
Cedric de Coning is a senior advisor to ACCORD and a research professor with the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI).
