Conflict & Resilience Monitor – 29 February 2024

Just like its forerunner, the Organisation of African Unity, which had to refashion and reposition itself after the Cold War, so too must the African Union adapt and respond to the rapidly emerging new global order.

The thirty-seventh ordinary session of the Assembly of the African Union (AU) ended on 18 February 2024 with significant decisions for promoting governance, peace, security and development on the continent.

The withdrawal of the Niger Republic from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) may impede the counterterrorism and counterinsurgency efforts in the Lake Chad Basin region, and by extension, the greater Sahel. The exit may result in a resurgence of terrorist assaults, particularly targeting internally displaced person’s (IDPs) and refugee camps.

Climate change in Africa has led to a marked increase in security risks. The African Climate Security Risk Assessment (ACRA), a new African Union-led assessment, analyses the interlinkages between climate, peace and security across the African continent and identifies existing good practices. What emerges is a complex picture of growing threats, remaining challenges and entry points to better address these risks.

The year 2024 sees 20 African countries scheduled to have presidential/national elections. In other words, over 37% of African countries will be engaging in the democratic process of electing leaders to govern for the next electoral terms. This high number of elections makes it key to assess the Continent’s overall quality of governance and degree of democratic consolidation.