Issue No: 6/2026

Conflict & Resilience Monitor – July 2026

The Conflict and Resilience Monitor offers monthly blog-size commentary and analysis on the latest conflict-related trends in Africa.

Photo: Alisdare Hickson

The July edition of the Monitor begins with an article by Francis M. Deng and Maiwen Ngalueth on the evolution of the concept Sovereignty as Responsibility into Responsibility to Protect. They argue that the next step in this evolution should be the concept of Human Security as Responsibility. Their article discusses how the concept of human security led to the understanding that sovereignty does not rest in the ability to protect borders alone, but also in the ability to protect the people within the borders.

In the next article, Jide Martyns Okeke argues for the development of a pan-African continental commodity exchange so that Africa is able to better capitalise on its rich critical mineral reserves. This commodity exchange, which will help determine a price that both buyers and sellers trust, could help improve access to finance, industrialisation, job creation and conditions for African firms to be more competitive. He argues that gold and copper should be the minerals that form the foundation of the commodity exchange to build its depth, before expanding to other markets.

The third article, written by Abadir M. Ibrahim and Hilina Berhanu Degefa, is a follow-up to an article published  last month on the state of Ethiopia’s democracy in the context of the elections held this year. They argue that Ethiopia has oscillated between democratic reforms and regression since the early 2000s, and the 2026 elections are no exception. They point out that Ethiopia has not be able to establish viable political opposition to the incumbent political party, due to both opposition repression and shortcoming within the opposition itself. They conclude that this has undermined Ethiopian democracy itself, and it reflects a society with deep social divisions.

Finally, Adam Randera has written an article about how the rise in coalition governments has led to a decline in women’s representation in legislative bodies in local governments in South Africa. He argues that barriers to meaningful women participation in politics has always existed, but in a time of coalitions, gender equality is often not a factor in negotiations and something that can be bargained away, especially as parties have different gender equality policies, and gender parity provisions are not included in existing local government legislation. However, he argues that it is important to have women in legislative bodies as they mainstream women’s experiences and ensure that policies and practices are more gender equal.

Chief Editor: Conflict & Resilience Monitor​
Managing Editor: Conflict & Resilience Monitor
Photo: U.S. Army Southern European Task Force
Peace and Security

When Sovereignty Fragments, Who Protects the People? Toward Human Security as Responsibility in an Era of Contested Authority

  • Francis Deng
  • Maiwen Ngalueth

More than three decades ago, one of the authors of this article, Francis Mading Deng, helped develop the concept of Sovereignty as Responsibility when he was head of the African Project team at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC, arguing that the legitimacy of states derives not simply from territorial control or international recognition, but from their capacity and willingness to protect the people living under their authority. The framework challenged the traditional notion of sovereignty as a shield against outside scrutiny and instead recast it as a duty toward citizens. It subsequently informed international efforts to address internal displacement and became one of the principal intellectual foundations of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine, as well as the broader area of international protection in international law and norms.

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Photo: Spearpear
Leadership

Why a Pan-African Continental Commodity Exchange Must Start with Gold and Copper

  • Jide Martyns Okeke

At the Africa CEO Forum in Kigali this May, President Bola Tinubu asked a simple question: ‘Why not start an exchange commodity platform where we [African countries] can trade with one another?’ His rhetorical question received widespread applause from the audience. Moderator Zeinab Badawi posed the key question: why don’t you start one? The President offered no real response. The gap between political will and implementation is the focus of this article.

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Photo: Pablographix
Elections

Ethiopia’s 2026 Elections: An Autopsy of a Failed Transition to Democracy

  • Abadir M. Ibrahim
  • Hilina Berhanu Degefa

As with most political projects, the collapse of democratic transitions is rarely tied to a single event. It is better explained through a series of political decisions and developments modulated by structural factors, whose cumulative effects call for an autopsy of the transition itself. Ethiopia’s case reflects this trajectory. The significance of the 2026 election in this trajectory lies not in the political event itself, but in what it reveals: a data point in a long-standing pattern of failure and the entrenched political culture that pattern has created.

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Photo: GroundUp/Ashraf Hendricks
Gender

Gender and Local Coalition Politics in South Africa

  • Adam Randera

With South Africa’s 2026 Local Government Elections approaching all talk seems to be of the growing prevalence of coalitions in the country. However, the rise in coalition governance is coinciding with another electoral trend: the stalling of progress in women’s representation in legislative bodies. At local government level, improved participation of women is not only essential for ensuring broader social inclusion, but has also been shown to promote better governance, strengthen policy-making, and enhance community resilience. Yet, despite substantial initial progress since 1994 and the introduction of specific policies such as the National Policy Framework for Women’s Empowerment and Gender Equality, the country has struggled to consistently elect women to more than 40% of council seats in recent election cycles. Bearing these two trends in mind, it is necessary to ask what impact coalition politics has had on woman, both in elected government positions and in the broader society.

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