The primary goal in the fight against COVID-19 is to prevent the spread of the virus and to care for those infected. As a result, African countries have acted faster than any region with a comparable rate of infection, and in the process thousands of lives have been saved.
COVID-19 may have started as a public health emergency, but at this stage, the measures taken to contain the crisis have developed into an economic crisis, that has more of an impact on people’s livelihoods than the virus itself.
Taken together, it seems as if some of the measures and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic are increasing political tensions and heightening the risk for social unrest and violent conflict.
Despite Africa’s weak health systems and governance deficiencies, the continent has thus far shown more resilience in handling the COVID-19 pandemic than many analysts predicted.
It is critical for policymakers to take into account country-specific demographic patterns and make sure to communicate with concerned populations.
COVID-19 is likely to disrupt ongoing peace processes, worsen existing conflicts and generate new conflicts. But it may also offer opportunities for ceasefires and peace agreements.
African governments face a challenging dilemma, finding the optimal balance between the need to contain the virus by limiting direct social-contact, protecting the economy and ensuring that people’s basic needs are met. It is becoming clear that the lockdowns most African governments have adopted to contain the virus are having a disproportionate impact on the poor and most vulnerable in our societies.
We have learned from the Ebola crisis in West Africa and elsewhere that COVID-19 containment strategies will fail unless they sufficiently involve communities in their design and implementation. The voices, needs and livelihoods of people and communities must remain at the centre of any response strategy.
In the last few weeks, there have been a significant increase in the number of arrests in some African countries, most for the failure to comply with COVID-19 related rules and regulations. The high number of arrests could further lower levels of public trust and increase the likelihood of social unrest and violence.
The pandemic offers an opportunity for political leadership to be exercised with determination. Epidemiological, not ideological solutions, are the key to success. It is science, not politics, that should guide our response to the pandemic.
People may have their objections on the way institutions such as Governments are run, but they expect them to deliver. Part of this expected delivery by the institutions is the capacity to anticipate and manage crises. In an uncertain environment like the ongoing global COVID-19 public health crisis, trust in institutions is essential for compliance to measures to prevent the spread and contain the virus and even more critical to maintain peace, security and stability.
The political, economic and social dislocation that we are witnessing is unprecedented. History does not have many examples of what the resulting landscape will look like. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, actions by politicians, government functionaries, religious and community leaders, business people, and civil society can either fuel social and political conflict or mitigate it.